Al-anwar Newspaper English news in Australia
electionPolitical strategist Kosmos Samaras looks at the impact unaffordable house prices and high rents in Sydney may have on the upcoming NSW state election
NSW is the biggest democratic jurisdiction in the country. It has been shaped by an unprecedented housing boom that has transformed Sydney, its capital city, both socially and politically. So, what does it all mean for a battle-weary Liberal government fighting for its life, against an energised Labor opposition looking to form government?
The last time NSW Labor won a state election, the median three-bedroom house price was just under $500,000, and at the top end, about 10 times the annual median income of a Sydney resident. Today, nearly 16 years later, you will not get much change out of $1 million and for many Sydney residents, they are sitting on mortgages that are 15 times their annual income.
The seats currently held by NSW Labor embody all of the most favourable demographic characteristics they could wish for, once you venture into seats like Oatley, Winston Hills and even the ultra-marginal seat of East Hills, the demographic landscape for Labor is riddled with potholes and obstacles.
These potholes and obstacles are specific to Sydney and to a lesser extent, NSW. They are not present in my state Victoria. Unlike Victoria, Labor in NSW cannot simply rely on the Millennial demographic wave.
IMelbourne, highly educated millennial progressives can still live in many of that city’s inner suburbs, even though housing attainment has also recently reached crisis levels. Poorer migrants have, over the last decade, been able to access the property market along Melbourne’s growth corridors, creating vast stretches of political territory friendlier to the left side of politics. The growth of favourable political territory was not hindered by Melbourne’s property market. Just before the pandemic, a low-income migrant family was still able to purchase a home along Melbourne’s outer fringes.
Sydney’s Labor seats have become magnets for struggling migrants and educated millennials without assets. Unfortunately, skyrocketing property prices have made it nearly impossible for them to venture beyond the city’s outer western suburbs. This has led to a shift in Sydney’s political landscape, with these vital cohorts being funnelled in existing Labor strongholds. As a result, the party now holds a majority of seats with the highest number of renters and the greatest diversity.
