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Australians are ready for a change of government
If history is our guide, a change of federal government at the upcoming election will come in an irresistible wave or not at all.
Since Gough Whitlam* ended more than two decades of Tory rule in 1972, every change of government has been a landslide. Malcolm Fraser picked up 30 seats in 1975, Bob Hawke snared 24 in 1983, John Howard gained 29 seats in 1996, Kevin Rudd won 23 in 2007 and even Tony Abbott acquired 18 extra seats in 2013.
Conversely there has not been a single win from a federal opposition in a close contest in the past 50 years. When it gets down to seat-by-seat combat, the advantages of incumbency in timing, logistics and budget see even beleaguered administrations cling on to power.
It is wrong to think of a federal election as a horse race. Rather it is a contest for power where the protagonists have very different objectives: one is trying to protect the shoreline from the high ground; the other is trying to get through the defences by surfing a mood for change.
When government changes the nation’s next leader senses (and sometimes shapes) the wave, gets into position from the back of the break and finds a way to remain upright. This requires a combination of policy adroitness, organisational capability and a leader’s capacity to merge their personal qualities with the zeitgeist.
For Whitlam it was simply “time” after decades of Tory rule; for Fraser it was an end to the chaos and conflict that he himself helped foment; Hawke unified a fractious nation; Howard promised to slow things down; Rudd was a safe antidote to ideological overreach; while Abbott just said “no” at a time the public had lost faith in a divided government.
Looking at pre-election polls the critical question is not “Who is ahead?”, but is there a wave for change-building? This is devilishly hard to pick, as the waves often break late as the undeclared voters (who we are recognising in our 2PP Plus model for the first time this cycle) finally make their choice.
This week’s Guardian Essential Report suggests that the tide is going out on the Morrison government, with nearly half of respondents thinking it’s time to give some else a go.
